The International Energy Agency is a Paris-based watchdog group that advises industrialized nations on global energy supply and demand. It releases an annual report called the World Energy Outlook that projects energy trends and analyzes energy policy. The 2010 report was released last week. Among the highlights...
- The agency believes production of conventional crude oil probably peaked in 2006, at about 70 million barrels per day. According to the report, production from currently producing oil fields will drop sharply in coming decades. In the near term, the IEA predicts there will be a short dip in production, but increased production from new fields will mean crude production should level out at about 68 million barrels per day between 2020 and 2035.
- Oil production from non-OPEC nations will provide 53.4 million barrels a day in 2011, or 250,000 barrels a day more than the agency’s October estimate. Worldwide consumption will increase by 1.2 million barrels a day, or 1.4 percent, to 88.5 million barrels a day next year. Production from U.S. onshore projects and natural gas liquids output will help make up for for lower offshore production due to this year’s drilling ban, according to the IEA. Its estimates for both Mexico and China were raised.
- The IEA's preliminary data suggests China overtook the United States in 2009 to become the world’s largest energy user and is predicted to account for 36% to the projected growth in global energy use. Strong demand growth from China and elsewhere will require supply to climb by more than 20 percent. The increase in production is expected to come primarily from unconventional oil sources like Canada’s tar sands and from increased production of natural gas liquids.
A number of sites posted commentary on the IEA report last week including the New York Times, Businessweek, and Renwable Energy World.
The IEA's press release summarizing the report is here.
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